系统可靠性预计方法综述

系统可靠性预计是进行可靠性设计的基础，其主要价值在于为设计决策提供依据。本文阐明了系统可靠性预计的概念，分析了系统可靠性预计的基本过程，综述了系统可靠性的预计方法，介绍和评论了各自的优缺点和适用范围，并对预计方法的发展前景做了初步展望。     

"公寓"型LRU可靠性指标的预计法探讨

探讨了“公寓”型LRU可靠性预计的方法，“公寓”型LRU的电子元器件不属于同一系统，因此不能按“串联”型预计，如何预计则应进一步研究，本文提出了预计的3种方法。     

Integration of lessons from recent research for “Earth to Mars” life support systems

Development of reliable and robust strategies for long-term life support for planetary exploration must be built from real-time experimentation to verify and improve system components. Also critical is incorporating a range of viable options to handle potential short-term life system imbalances. This paper revisits some of the conceptual framework for a Mars base prototype which has been developed by the authors along with others previously advanced (“Mars on Earth^®”) in the light of three years of experimentation in the Laboratory Biosphere, further investigation of system alternatives and the advent of other innovative engineering and agri-ecosystem approaches. Several experiments with candidate space agriculture crops have demonstrated the higher productivity possible with elevated light levels and improved environmental controls. For example, crops of sweet potatoes exceeded original Mars base prototype projections by an average of 46% (53% for best crop) ultradwarf (Apogee) wheat by 9% (23% for best crop), pinto bean by 13% (31% for best crop). These production levels, although they may be increased with further optimization of lighting regimes, environmental parameters, crop density etc. offer evidence that a soil-based system can be as productive as the hydroponic systems which have dominated space life support scenarios and research. But soil also offers distinct advantages: the capability to be created on the Moon or Mars using in situ space resources, reduces long-term reliance on consumables and imported resources, and more readily recycling and incorporating crew and crop waste products. In addition, a living soil contains a complex microbial ecosystem which helps prevent the buildup of trace gases or compounds, and thus assist with air and water purification. The atmospheric dynamics of these crops were studied in the Laboratory Biosphere adding to the database necessary for managing the mixed stands of crops essential for supplying a nutritionally adequate diet in space. This paper explores some of the challenges of small bioregenerative life support: air-sealing and facility architecture/design, balance of short-term variations of carbon dioxide and oxygen through staggered plantings, options for additional atmospheric buffers and sinks, lighting/energy efficiency engineering, crop and waste product recycling approaches, and human factor considerations in the design and operation of a Mars base. An “Earth to Mars” project, forging the ability to live sustainably in space (as on Earth) requires continued research and testing of these components and integrated subsystems; and developing a step-by-step learning process.     

C/SiC材料在模拟空天往返条件下的可重复使用性能评估

针对飞行器空天往返、多次使用的发展需求,以2D C/SiC材料为对象,选择开放大气模拟环境、800 ℃温度条件开展了常/高温拉伸试验、以及常温→高温→降温循环变化历程下拉-拉疲劳的耦合试验,得到不同的力学性能规律,分析了影响材料表面涂层完整性的控制因素及转化点。表明C/SiC材料具有优良的高温静态持续强度性能,但在常-高温循环变化历程下的疲劳性能明显衰减。采用剩余刚度衰减模型,提出了力-热-氧耦合时考虑常-高温循环历程影响因素、以及氧化尺寸效应影响的疲劳剩余性能评估方法。     

多轴随机载荷下的疲劳寿命估算方法

提出了一种多轴随机载荷下的疲劳寿命预测方法.通过雨流计数法对各平面上的剪应变进行循环计数,以统计出的剪应变循环作为多轴疲劳损伤的主要控制参数,将各剪应变循环历程内对应的最大正应力和正应变变程作为多轴疲劳损伤的第二控制参数.根据多轴疲劳寿命模型计算出各平面上的损伤,以最大损伤平面作为多轴随机疲劳的临界平面,通过该临界平面上的损伤计算出多轴随机载荷下的疲劳寿命.采用SNCM630钢,304不锈钢和S45C钢3种金属材料的多轴随机疲劳试验数据对提出的寿命预测方法进行评估和验证.结果表明:疲劳寿命预测结果大都分布在试验结果的2倍分散带之内.     

基于贝叶斯因子和二阶概率方法的圣地亚热传导模型确认挑战问题

针对美国圣地亚国家实验室为促进模型确认方法的发展所提出的热传导挑战问题,根据现代模型确认思想总结了该挑战问题解答中应包含的核心内容。在确认度量环节采用贝叶斯因子考察了实验数据是否支持所给模型,在此基础上通过二阶概率方法得到了模型预测的分布,以此计算出模型预测结论的置信度。该过程中考虑了模型参数的随机不确定性和认知不确定性,最后通过灵敏度分析辨识了模型参数的不确定性对模型预测的影响。研究表明该挑战问题中的实验数据支持所给模型,模型预测受导热系数的不确定性影响最大,模型预测材料在调控条件下的失效概率不满足调控要求,该结论的置信度为99.97%。     

Storage life of silicone rubber sealing ring used in solid rocket motor

It is urgent to carry out detailed research on storage performance of rubber sealing ring to get the criterion for its storage life. This paper acquires material ageing regularity by theoretical analysis and experimental confirmation. On this condition, failure mode and failure criterion of typical sealing structure is studied, and the failure mechanism is found. Thus by analyzing the stress distribution, the relationship between ageing state and sealing condition is established. Rationalization proposal is put forward and storage life of sealing ring is evaluated. The research mentionedabove has special reference to the design of sealing structures and can provide reference for prolonging their service life.     

基于任务分析的飞行机组失误预测研究

在过去的20年内有多起严重事故由机组失误引起,采取措施防止或减少飞行机组失误成为降低航空事故率的关键.通过使用人误预测技术预测机组在执行飞行任务时的失误,寻找失误原因,进一步改进驾驶舱设计或增加培训来降低航空事故率是可行的方法.本研究以民航领域飞行安全需求为背景,在原有人误预测技术基础上,开发了基于任务分析的飞行机组失误预测模型,以某型飞机起飞任务为例,对飞行机组在操纵飞机起飞过程中可能发生的人误进行分析,实现了飞行机组失误的定性和定量预测.     

气孔缺陷对TA15 钛合金氩弧焊接头疲劳性能的影响

对TA15钛合金氩弧焊接接头的组织和疲劳断裂特征进行了分析,对气孔缺陷和疲劳寿命的关系进行了定量表征.结果表明:疲劳裂纹起源于焊缝的亚表面或者内部气孔缺陷,当气孔尺寸较小时,断口会出现“鱼眼”形貌特征;应力水平较低时,气孔尺寸对疲劳寿命的影响尤为显著,在特定的应力水平下,可以通过构件中的气孔缺陷尺寸来预测其寿命,对于焊接结构疲劳寿命的预测和构件焊接质量的评定具有重要的工程意义.     

大型运输机机体结构全尺寸疲劳试验分散系数探讨

从疲劳分散系数的含义入手,分析了国内、外军用标准和民用适航标准对于疲劳分散系数的要求,从中找出了影响战斗类飞机与运输类飞机疲劳分散系数的因素,给出了确定大型运输机全尺寸疲劳试验分散系数的原则。